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The Hofstra Mets 50th Anniversary Conference

You’ve probably heard about this conference, running from this Thursday through Saturday.  If not, here’s a link to Faith and Fear in Flushing and Greg Prince, who’s done a great job as a liaison between Hofstra and us bloggers in memory of Dana Brand, who’s brainchild this conference was.

 

I’ll be part of the Brown Bagging in the Bullpen with the Blogosphere lunch panel on Thursday and Saturday with some notable Mets bloggers.  I’ll also be speaking in a panel on Saturday entitled “Metmoirs” and Memories about the plight of the New Age Mets Fan who’s never consciously lived through a Mets championship.

 

I encourage you to check it out, as it promises to be a fun couple of days and the Mets are headed out of town to Colorado anyway!

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Tripling Barry Zito’s ERA

Clearly Barry Zito’s ERA is a factor of small sample size. (sing it everybody!)

 

He’s coming into tonight’s game with a 1.125 ERA having given up only two runs over 16 innings.  This is unsustainable, as I suspect the Mets will demonstrate.

 

If the Mets score 6 runs in 5.1 or less it would triple Zito’s 1.125 ERA.
If they only score five they’d have to do it in 2.1 innings to triple it.
4 runs in 8 or less innings would double it.
If they only score 3, they’d have to chase him in 4 innings to double his ERA.
For his ERA to dip under 1, he only needs 2.1 scoreless innings, but if the Mets score once he’d need to go 11.

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The Importance of Adjustments

Citi Field, by CeetarDavid Wright was hitting for three and when he broke his finger it has devastating effects on the Mets lineup.  That’s not to say they can’t win without him, but at the time of the injury he was practically carrying the team and no one else has managed to pick them back up yet.

 

Regardless of if Wright is back Friday, next Friday, or after a DL stint is irrelevant.  The Mets need to make adjustments and this 50 hour window between games is the perfect opportunity to do it.   Assess the best way to set up the lineup, have guys refocus on the game plan, do their infield drills, and put extra work in scouting the Phillies pitchers.   Those two losses should keep the Mets from getting complacent under a “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” mentality.  It’s broke, so fix it.

 

Obviously Ike Davis and Lucas Duda need to hit more.  Jason Bay does too, as he represents basically all of the right-handed power in the lineup if Scott Hairston isn’t starting, but if Bay can simply manage to not double up on career-worst years I’ll be happy.  I’ve never really been a big believer in the idea that lefties can’t hit lefties, attributing it more to a small sample size coupled with the inability for players to get enough reps against them.  The Mets lineup is extremely left-handed, so they really need to start hitting to avoid being exploited by LOOGYs.  Maybe the massive amount of lefties the Mets will see, both in Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, and in the relievers teams bring in face the Mets lefty sluggers, will give Duda and Davis, as well as Daniel Murphy, Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Josh Thole, the reps against them that they need to get comfortable with release points and different breaks.  Certainly if they could start demonstrating that they can hit lefties, it will keep Terry Collins from putting lesser players from the bench in key spots.

 

4-2 is still a good start.  The Mets now need to do the work required to win on this road trip, and continue the good start.   Cliff Lee will be tough, but the Mets can hit Vance Worley and they own Cole Hamels.  Then they get three against the Braves again, who they already swept.   David Wright back would have a huge impact on run-scoring, but they have to find ways to win these games with or without him.

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You Better Believe We’re Going To Overreact

Mets snag an Opening Day WinThree games is a very small sample of data.  It’s still early.

 

I don’t care.  I’m going to enjoy it.  I’m going to throw out ridiculous information because it’s fun to look at projections of Lucas Duda hitting 120 home runs.

 

While three games is just three games, it’s still a lot more meaningful than Spring Training data.  Frank Francisco nailed down three saves.  The bullpen pitched well.   Lucas Duda really does look like he can hit.   Ruben Tejada’s looking good.  The Mets are in first place.  Even Jason Bay has an RBI, and leads the league in sacrifice flies.

 

Just enjoy it.  Things will probably shake out differently the rest of the season.  I doubt the Mets go 162-0.  Still, I think as people see this team play they’re realizing that they actually do have talented players on it.  Enjoy the ride.  Is there something from this weekends games that opened your eyes involving this Mets team?

 

David Wright is on pace to … I don’t even want to say it.  I’m afraid I’ll jinx it.  There is a certain batter outcome that happens at the plate, and it’s one that’s been very prevalent in Wright’s game the past couple of years.  Ryan Howard and Adam Dunn are experts at it.  Wright hasn’t done it this year.   He didn’t do it in Spring Training either.  Keith Hernandez is practically drooling over his batting stance so far this season.   We all know what David’s capable of.  This is my biggest point of optimism this weekend.

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Citi Field’s Updated Scoreboard

Citi Field updated the scoreboard this season.  It’s now a little more colorful, but more importantly it now contains a lot of new info.

You’ve got stats, including career stats, for the batter.   These include more than the traditional HR and RBI that you used to see.  You’ve got OBP, and SLG, and OPS, and even XBH.

 

You’ve got a spray chart for all the balls in play for the batter during the game, including a recap of each of his at-bats.

You’ve still got a little factoid, and most of them are still pretty silly, about the player.

 

There’s an in-inning summary of how each batter did and how they did or did not get on base.

 

The pitching summary includes a dynamic WHIP and ERA as well, while still maintaining the K count and giving you the pitch speed.

 

There’s a ton of info on there, and it’s great to see.   Now we’ll have less reason to need to pull up baseball-reference on our phones mid-game to check on players.  Speaking of which, they really need an Android app.

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Here’s Your Optimistic Mets Prediction

Calling predictions predictions under-emphasizes how inaccurate and subject to random luck they are, even when it’s the so-called experts making them.  I am not an expert, merely a blogger that likes to think positively.  So what do I think the Mets do in 2012?

 

I think the highest probability bet is they finish third.  Right around 82-84 wins.  I know there are people out there that think that’s crazy, but it’s really not that outlandish.  The bullpen and rotation are improved over last year, even if you want to argue over how much.  The offense lost some big pieces, but it’s also got some guys back too.  Adding in some power to a team that was already going to get on base a lot should score a lot of runs.  I don’t think the Marlins improved enough to get above .500, and I think one of either the Nationals or Braves will deal with enough problems to fall below that mark.

 

This doesn’t mean the Mets can’t make the playoffs.  (Nor does it mean they can’t finish last) I’ve watched enough baseball to know anything can happen, and I think the Mets do have enough potential upside in a lot of their players to be able to realize competitiveness if enough things go right.  Ike Davis, Lucas Duda, Ruben Tejada, even Dillon Gee, Jon Niese and Josh Thole all are of an age or stage in their career where improvement is possible, even expected.   Mike Pelfrey keeping the ball down and yielding fewer home runs this season and Johan’s shoulder holding up better than we can reasonably home are other key factors that could lead to a good Mets season.

 

So all in all this season should at least be a lot of fun.  If you had to pick just one thing to zone in on and believe in, one reason to seriously watch this Mets baseball team, I’d say watch Lucas Duda and Ike Davis.  The lefty power the Mets have this season is very real and the Pepsi Porch may become the new hot spot to catch a home run ball this season.

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Mets Add New Craft Beer Options

have a beer at Citi FieldLast night was a preview event for the new food options at Citi Field for the 2012.  I’ll get to some of that in a different post, (Or you can check some of the other obvious places, such as the confluence of all Mets and Sandwich news, Tedquarters.  Spoiler alert: We both agree on what was the best new food option.)  First off, the beer changes!

 

The Citi Field Beer List lists Blue Point Lager and Blue Point Toasted.  Those are actually the same beers as far as I know.  It’s Blue Point Toasted Lager.  One has a star and one does not, so I think this means it’ll be available at both the craft beer stands and at some normal places. (Catch of the Day is where it’s been)  Another weird one is Goose Island Sum Blonde Ale.  I don’t think Goose Island makes a blonde.  They make Goose Island Summertime, which was occasionally available last year at Big Apple Brews due to it’s Anheuser-Busch/InBev distribution.

 

Yes, craft beer stands.  Located near sections 105 (That’s by the World’s Fare Market), section 127 (Near the other foul pole) and in section 413 (That’s the Promenade food court area) of the Promenade Level meaning we don’t have to go downstairs from the cheap seats to get good beer.

 

Real craft beers that weren’t on the list last year, or were only available in the Delta Sky 360 Club (The Ommegang may still only be there)  include Blue Point Summer, Blue Point White India Pale Ale (This one’s a new one, premiered March 29th, 2012), Ommegang Abbey Ale, Redhook Pilsner, Six Point Sweet Action, Sierra Nevada, Magic Hat #9, and Widmer Drifter Pale Ale.  Also new is the expanded line of Shock Top ales, the Lemon Shandy, the Raspberry Wheat, and the Wheat India Pale Ale.

 

I’m still going to do a full analysis of Citi Field on Opening Day to take in the options and confirm this list.  Having a craft beer stand is an excellent idea, and having three of them even better.  I’m happy with this expansion, but I also hope this is a first step and not a final idea.  The list has 12 stars on it representing the beers available at the craft beer stands in either cans or drafts.  I imagine some of the more seasonal ones will rotate out, like Blue Point Summer, but the others include Shock Top, Leinenkugel Summer Shandy and Blue Moon, which are macro brews.  Also included are Anheuser-Busch/InBev distributed Goose Island IPA, Kona Longboard Lager, and Widmer Drifter Pale Ale.    The real expansion is the Blue Point brews, and that’s great.  It’ll also be nice to be able to have Magic Hat #9, Sixpoint Sweet Action and Sierra Nevada outside the club areas.   Sixpoint has a large line of cans available these days, so hopefully more of those start showing up.

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Angels Add Local Craft Beer

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are adding four craft beers from two different local breweries this season.   This is nice to see, especially that the manager of premium services at Angels Stadium says it was his number request last year.

 

I’ve been harping on the Mets for their lack of publicly available local craft beer.  Last year they cut out the local Brooklyn Brewery beers present in previous years.   Now one of the only beer not distributed byAnheuser Busch is Blue Point’s Toasted Lager at Catch of the Day.

 

The Mets and Aramark have been pretty good at adding new food and drink at Citi Field, and there’s a preview event tonight featuring at least the new foods, so I’m going to reserve further judgement on the Mets beer situation until Opening Day.  Still, it’s nice to see the craft beer revolution catching on in baseball stadiums, even ones in California.

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2012 NL East: A Race Down to the Wire

The Phillies and Braves got worse, and the Mets, Nationals and Marlins got better.  This season the NL East could finish with the first place team being less than 15 games ahead of the last place team.  Last year the Marlins finished 30 games behind the Phillies.

 

The top of the division shapes up to win a few less games, and the bottom of the division will win a few more.  This will bridge the gap between them and bunch everyone up in the middle.   Injuries and other things can affect this of course, but the Mets and the Marlins figure to be falling in the middle somewhere.    Maybe there’s some doubt that some of the bottom teams can win the division or that the Phillies will finish last, but it’s definitely going to be a tighter race this season.

 

These teams play each other in half the season’s games.  The head to head matchups are going to play a huge role in determining who wins the division this year.  The margin of error this year may be that much less that a good record against teams within the division make up the different between winning and falling short.  Even just an 11-7 record against the Phillies would make up four games in the standings.  If I’m right about the division being bunched up, it’s really going to intensify the rivalries between some of these teams.  That can only be a good thing that leads to teams setting up their rotations so we get more pitching duel matchups.  All five teams will go into September with a lot of games to play against each, meaning most of the NL East teams may still control their own destiny in terms of making the playoffs.

 

It’s going to be a fun season.

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Reasons To Be Optimistic About 2012

Yesterday the Wilpons settled their Madoff case, putting a pretty firm handle on what their liabilities are going forward.  This is a big step in getting the Mets financially stable.  The second step was announced last night as official; The 12 minority shares have sold.  They’ve paid back the bridge loans, and have the cash on handle to start getting things straightened out.  They’ve got other financial woes on the horizon, but none of those are looming at this moment, so it’s time to focus on the baseball.

 

Kerel Cooper at Ontheblack.com lists five reasons to be optimistic about the 2012 Mets.  Five good solid reasons, beyond the finances, which you should definitely check out.  Here’s a couple more to round out the list.

The bullpen:  Frank Francisco and Jon Rauch haven’t historically been regularly awesome, but they’ll be a step up from Ryota Igarashi and D.J. Carrasco.  Add in Ramon Ramirez, who’s a very solid reliever, and the Mets should have a good bullpen.  This helps the Mets keep and hold leads, where maybe they’d have given them away last year.  It also limits the pressure on a recovering Johan Santana to go deep in games too often.

 

The opposition: You’ll here that everyone in the division got better, but it’s not true.  The Phillies lost a starting pitcher in Oswalt, lost Madson and Lidge and replaced them with Papelbon, and are starting the season without Ryan Howard and probably without Chase Utley.  Their top three pitchers are awesome, but they also all posted career low ERAs.  Halladay and Lee are not pitchers you expect to be improving at their age, so it’s almost a lock that they’ll regress to a somewhat less awesome state this year.  That’s without mentioning Halladay’s declining velocity or the Spring Training rumors (that mean nothing, it’s Spring Training) that he’s been hitable and his arm angle is all messed up.  The Atlanta Braves finished second in the division, and after an epic collapse really didn’t do much to alleviate their problems.  They’re also dealing with some pitcher injuries.  With the top of the division coming back to the pack, the threshold to make the playoffs is lessened and intra-division games could go a long way towards deciding the victor.

 

The 2012 Mets are going to surprise some people.  They’ve got some real talent on the team, and every day is another day closer to some of the reinforcements in the minors being ready.  It’s going to be a fun season, and I can’t wait for it to start.